The Republican primary has turned into a delegate fight.

And the establishment’s only chance to stop Donald Trump is now the second ballot of a brokered convention.

The two biggest remaining delegate prizes are Indiana and California, but two new polls from both states were not what the Republican establishment had hoped to see.

Fox News polls showed Donald Trump with an 8 point lead in the Hoosier State, and a massive 27 point advantage in the Golden State.

Indiana awards 57 delegates on a winner-takes-all basis by Congressional district and statewide vote.

30 delegates are awarded to the statewide winner and 3 delegates are handed to the winner of each of the state’s nine Congressional districts.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has moved all-in in Indiana.

He has aggressively campaigned in the state to deny Trump the 1,237 number of delegates necessary to win the nomination.

Many expected Indiana to play out like fellow mid-western state Wisconsin.

Trump had entered the state massively unpopular with voters, and faced a united establishment media that had been pummeling him for the last two weeks leading up to the primary.

Trump did himself no favors, with a string of missteps he was trounced by Cruz in the vote.

But due to laws that prohibit robo-dialing, no public polling had existed in Indiana until after the New York primary on April 19th.

The Fox Poll shows Trump up by 8 points which has stunned observers and altered the campaign plans for Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich.

What also alarms the establishment is that Indiana is not going to play out like Wisconsin due to Trump’s favorability.

The polls in Wisconsin had shown Trump deeply unpopular with voters and having an unfavorable number in the 60’s.

But the WHTR/Howley Politics poll in Indiana reports Trump as 56% favorable and 38% unfavorable.

The same poll finds Ted Cruz with a 54%-38% favorable/unfavorable spread.

The lead and favorable numbers for Trump look similar to his winning performances in Illinois and Michigan, rather than his dismal performance in the Badger State.

Because of these polls, Kasich announced he would pull his resources out of Indiana to give Cruz the advantage in defeating Trump.

And while a Cruz defeat in Indiana could set Trump off track from collecting the 1,237 delegates, it would not be fatal because of the commanding lead Trump has in California.

172 delegates are up for grabs in the Golden State.

3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each 53 Congressional districts, and 3 to the statewide winner.

But because of the diverse nature of the state, a candidate could run behind in the polls but still rack up delegates based on how the districts vary ideologically.

However, Trump’s 49% support in the Fox News poll indicates he is strong across the board and could sweep most – or even all – of the districts and collect the delegates necessary to put him over the top on the first ballot of the convention.

But these polls are just a snapshot in time.

There is an old saying that 24 hours is a lifetime in politics, so it will seem an eternity until the voting plays out in California and Indiana.

Nevertheless, the results from the public polling have the establishment scrambling in what appears to be a final effort to stop Donald Trump.