Donald Trump

Joe Biden and the Democrats are discovering the polls in the 2020 election are not what they seem to be.

That’s bad news for the Democrats.

Donald Trump was speechless when he saw these swing state poll numbers.

The polling in the presidential election has been a major focus of the coverage of the race.

Fake news media pundits bombard Americans with the narrative that Joe Biden is running away with the election and the only questions remaining are the size of the Biden landslide and if it will be big enough to drag Democrats to a majority in the Senate.

But the polls tell a different story.

In fact, an analysis of the polls in the New York Post showed Donald Trump is running better in the swing states than he did in 2016.

David Harsanyi wrote:

The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at an 11.5-point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage-point average.

Other swing states find Biden similarly underperforming. He is up 5.5 points in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton was up 9.2 the same day in 2016. Polls would tighten, but Clinton still ended up two points on Election Day. Biden was up seven points in Michigan last week, and Clinton was up nine points on the same day in 2016. Yet by the weekend, Biden’s RCP average lead had shrunk to just over 2.5 percent.

The public polls are the public polls and they have been wrong before.

Voters do not have access to the campaign’s internal polls.

Campaigns have more resources than media companies and can devote more money to polling which allows them to more carefully screen for likely voters and a more accurate reading of the electorate.

However, Americans can get a sense of the campaign’s numbers based on how they spend their money and deploy the candidates to travel.

And in both cases – how the campaigns are managing the candidates’ travel and spending money on TV advertising – they show a race that is a tossup.

President Trump traveled to New Hampshire after the convention and Vice President Pence traveled to Minnesota.

The Biden campaign announced the former Vice President would also travel to Minnesota.

If Biden was up by 8 to 10 points, he would have New Hampshire and Minnesota in the bag.

But the continued rioting softened Biden’s support and opened the door for Trump to flip the state.

And the TV ad budgets for the two campaigns show the Biden campaign playing defense in six states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 – Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Virginia and Colorado – while the Trump campaign is not spending money in two states the Democrats claim are battlegrounds – Texas and Georgia.

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The political TV ad tracking site, Medium Buying, wrote:

Current start dates for presidential TV ad spending Biden — Up through Election Day: AZ, FL, MI, NV, NC, OH, PA, WI 9/8: IA, ME, MN, NH 10/6: CO, GA, TX, VA

Trump (not including direct response buys) — 9/8: AZ, FL, IA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, WI

The momentum in the election is clearly in Donald Trump’s favor.

And the way Americans can tell is that the campaign money expenditures and travel schedule are shifting to show the Trump campaign playing offense and not just defense.

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