Will Donald Trump reach 1,237 delegates?  What happens if he doesn’t?

These two questions have dominated the Republican nominating contest for weeks.

Two new polls give a glimpse into the answers; but, the Republican establishment won’t like what they reveal.

In order for Trump to reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates, he must win California.

And a new CBS/YouGuv survey shows Trump with a commanding 18 point lead in the Golden State.

This margin is significant because it effects how the delegates are selected.  169 of the 172 delegates up-for-grabs are awarded winner-take-all by the state’s 53 congressional districts.

California, the final state primary, will be held on June 7th, and Trump will have to scoop up the vast majority of California’s delegates.

On that date, Trump will be the only possible candidate who can win the 1,237 delegates to clinch the GOP nomination on the first ballot.

Polling at 49% could mean a massive delegate win for Trump in the Golden State.

But the poll giving the establishment the worst case of heartburn is an NBC Wall Street Journal national poll.

According to this poll, 62% of Republicans believe that if no candidate wins a majority of the delegates, then the candidate with the most votes should be the nominee.

Just 33% agree with the establishment that the convention should nominate someone else.

When asked if it was acceptable or unacceptable for Trump to run as a third-party candidate should he be denied the nomination, Republicans split almost evenly with 45% saying it’s acceptable and 47% saying it is unacceptable.

By a 54% to 38% split, Republicans also believe it would be unacceptable to deny Donald Trump the nomination should he enter the convention with the most delegates.

The number of Republicans willing to accept a third-party candidacy by Trump is a warning shot across the bow of the establishment not to undertake in any dirty tricks at a contested convention.

The results also show that voters believe that primary results are what matter most and the establishment’s argument that a convention is how Presidents Lincoln and Eisenhower were nominated in 1860 and 1952 holds little sway.

The establishment is wishing for a “white knight” candidate like House Speaker, Paul Ryan to be delivered the nomination on the convention floor.

But when asked if it was acceptable or unacceptable for the convention to choose a candidate who has not run in the primaries, only 20% believe this is acceptable, and the overwhelming majority — 71% believe this is unacceptable.

The NBC poll shows the Republican establishment would be guaranteeing a rift in the party unlikely to heal in time for the general election should it conspire to take the nomination from Trump should he enter the convention with the most delegates.

A big night in California could solve that problem by giving Trump the 1,237 delegates he needs going into the convention.  The CBC/YouGuv poll suggests this is a possibility.

And the NBC poll results showing an unfavorable response to a contested convention that does not nominate Trump, but instead hands it to an establishment-friendly nominee should dissuade establishment Republicans from engineering any dirty tricks at the convention.

How will the Republican primary play out?

Let us know in the comment section.