The conventional wisdom in the media and political class is that Donald Trump is toast.
Pundits and prognosticators all have Hillary Clinton as favored to win on November 8th.
But the most accurate pollster in America’s latest poll turned heads across America.
The Investor’s Business Daily (IBD/TIPP) tracking poll was the most accurate poll in America for the 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections.
FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver ranked 23 tracking polls, and lists IBD/TIPP as the gold standard.
Their first tracking poll found Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 1 point in a four-way matchup, which included Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party standard bearer Dr. Jill Stein.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump narrowly trailed Clinton by 2 points.
By the fourth day of the poll, Trump inched his lead in the four-way contest up to 2 points, while erasing his deficit with Clinton in the two-way matchup and tied the race.
These results fly in the face of the media’s preferred narrative.
IBD reports on the results of the poll:
“Trump leads 44%-28% among independents, increasing from prior days. Trump dominates among rural voters (57%-27%),while Clinton is well ahead among urban voters (53%-29%) and split in the suburbs (Clinton 41%-39%).
Roughly 5% of voters say they are undecided in a four-way race. Johnson and Stein are showing unusually strong support for a non-major party candidate so late in a presidential campaign. That reflects the historical unpopularity of Trump and Clinton.
Could the third-party candidates affect the outcome of the race? That’s unclear. In most states, either Clinton or Trump should win easily. So voters can pull the lever for Johnson or Stein without changing who will be the victor. In battleground states, though, voters may be more reluctant to vote for a third party when the winner is in doubt.
But with Trump edging ahead in a two-way race, Clinton can’t necessarily count on Johnson and Stein defectors to carry her to victory on Election Day.
Many election analysts have argued that economic anxiety has fueled Trump’s populist message on trade and immigration. But among various groups, Trump fares best among middle-class and upper-class voters. Trump supporters, concentrated among rural and non-college voters, may be faring relatively well economically. But many are anxious about social change, family breakdown and what kind of jobs and lives their children will lead.
The IBD/TIPP poll shows a wide gender gap. But Clinton leads by 16 points (50%-34%) among single women, while married women are split 42%-42%.”
In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump is expected to press his message of change on immigration, trade, and foreign policy.
Analysts may have written him off, but this poll shows Trump has a chance at victory.