2016 could be repeat of 2000 as black apathy could hand state to Trump

The last time a Clinton White House figure ran for president, it ended with a Republican upset victory after problems with the Democrat vote in Florida.

And recent polls show history could repeat itself.

While Hillary Clinton enjoys wide leads in several battleground states, she’s been unable to take a commanding lead in Florida and even trails there in several polls.

And based on all polling data, if Clinton wins Florida there is no way Trump can win the election.

So the growing parade of polls showing her either unable to take a meaningful lead, or even trailing there, have thrown the Clinton campaign into panic.

A deeper look at those numbers reveals why she’s suffering.

Black voters don’t like her and may stay home.

Democrats typically win over 90 percent of the black vote.

“Clinton isn’t polling quite that well in a state that has nearly 1.7 million black voters,” Politico reports. “An average of the last three Florida polls that provided racial breakdowns shows she’s polling less than 85 percent among African-American voters in Florida, while Trump polls around 5 percent.”

That slight underperformance becomes an even bigger problem when you factor in predicted turnout.

When your party’s most loyal voters temper their support and depress their turnout, it becomes an amplified problem.

Clinton hopes to gin up turnout by playing to fears of racial violence.

“(B)lack mothers who have lost children to gun violence hosted a Clinton organizing event in Jacksonville and a voter registration drive in Opa-Locka, a majority black city near Miami. The group, Mothers of the Movement, includes Sybrina Fulton, mother of Trayvon Martin, whose 2012 shooting death near Orlando became a flashpoint for racial division and gun violence,” Politico reported.

Clinton is also resurrecting a tried-and-true Democrat turnout tactic – invoking the Ku Klux Klan.

“Among those efforts were a rally late last month at FAMU headlined by Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, in which he praised the value of HBCUs and hammered Trump for pushing the ‘bigoted notion that President Obama wasn’t even born in this country’ and tying the Republican to ‘Ku Klux Klan values,’” Politico reports.

When you crunch the numbers, you can see why the Clinton campaign is pulling every trick in the book to boost black turnout.

Florida has 1.7 million black voters.  Black voters turn out to vote in presidential races at a rate between 61 and 69 percent.

Sixty-one percent turnout means 1,037,000 voters.  Sixty-nine percent turnout means 1,173,000 voters.

That’s a difference of 136,000 votes.

Assuming black turnout is an average of 65 percent, 90 percent support means Clinton gets 994,500 black votes.  If her support were to drop to 85 percent, she would get 939,250 black votes.

That’s a difference of 55,250 votes, in a state whose 29 electoral votes were decided by a margin of 537 votes in 2000.

Even a slight dip in black turnout, or a small downturn in black support, translates into anywhere between 50,000 and 150,000 lost votes in a state that will not only likely decide the White House race, but could be decided by less than 100,000 votes.